Flash Flood Warning for Santa Barbara County

Cooler temperatures — and maybe some showers — headed to SoCal this weekend, with temperatures in the lower to mid-60s expected on Sunday and Saturday, and 60s on Sunday and possibly high 70s on Saturday. And for some parts of the valley, we could see the return of “colder” weather next week — cold and rainy, with highs just below 70.

That’s what the National Weather Service forecast for Santa Barbara, Bakersfield, Calabasas, Palm Springs and Rancho Mirage shows. You might be able to look up their forecasts in a smartphone app for local weather data.

But as usual, it can be hard to tell what’s really going on because of the lack of reliable data — and the big gaps in the data.

“These forecasts are pretty much guesses at best,” said Bob Sweet, director of the National Weather Service’s Weather Forecast Office in Sacramento. “They can’t be too accurate because there’s this missing piece from the data.

“When a major rainfall event happens with two weeks of data in between, it’s like trying to put together a block of furniture with a total of only five pieces.”

Here’s what we know from this week’s data.

More than half of all the rain that fell in the Valley last week came on Friday and Saturday, as some 10.43 inches of rain fell on Friday and 10.04 inches on Saturday and Sunday.

The National Weather Service on Tuesday issued a flash flood warning for Santa Barbara County from 8 a.m. to noon for a stretch as far west as Highway 111 and Calabasas.

A half-mile stretch of Highway 111 from Highway 101 to Route 168 in El Dorado County — from just south of the Ventura County Line to just east of the Ventura Bay — was under a moderate risk of flash flood flooding with heavy rains and minor surf.

The National Weather Service on Monday issued a

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